Bloomberg: The Hormuz Billion-Barrel Oil Shock Is About to Crash Demand — $154/Barrel Forecast If Disruption Continues 12 Weeks

# Bloomberg: The Hormuz Billion-Barrel Oil Shock Is About to Crash Demand — $154/Barrel Forecast If Disruption Continues 12 Weeks

> **Quick answer:** Bloomberg's April 25 analysis, citing consultant FGE NexantECA, warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for 12 weeks, Brent crude could reach $154/barrel — triggering a self-reinforcing demand collapse. At the current $105/barrel, destruction is already happening: Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights, US gasoline consumption dropped 5% year-over-year, and top commodity traders say the world is now "at a critical inflection point." The scenario echoes 2008, when $147 oil preceded a global recession.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

Bloomberg's Hormuz oil shock analysis, published April 25, 2026, delivers one of the starkest warnings yet from the financial press: the market is not waiting for $154/barrel oil to start breaking. At $105 Brent, the breaking is already underway — and the damage is accelerating in waves, sector by sector, continent by continent.

## The Bloomberg Analysis: What $154 Means and How We Get There

The core of Bloomberg's April 25 report is a forecast from FGE NexantECA, one of the world's leading energy consultancy firms. Their model is unambiguous: if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues for 12 weeks from the conflict's start (February 28, 2026), Dated Brent — the world's key physical crude benchmark — will breach $154/barrel.