Oil Hits $95 Monday as Pre-Closure Tanker Stock Runs Out — JPMorgan Says $150 Overshoot Possible

# Oil Hits $95 Monday as Pre-Closure Tanker Stock Runs Out — JPMorgan Says $150 Overshoot Possible

> **Quick answer:** Brent crude surged to $95.42 (+5.31%) and WTI to $88.87 (+7.6%) in Monday's session as the last barrels loaded before the Hormuz closure fully cleared global supply chains — the exact "supply cliff" JPMorgan identified weeks ago. With the Iran ceasefire expiring in roughly 17 hours and talks completely collapsed, JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman warns oil could overshoot toward $150 if the Strait stays shut through mid-May. Goldman Sachs projects $120/bbl in Q3 under the same scenario.

Today is the day the market has been dreading for weeks. The oil prices surge hitting on April 21, 2026, is not simply a reaction to breaking news — it is the mechanically predictable result of a supply chain countdown that institutional investors have been tracking since early March. The last tankers loaded before the Hormuz blockade began have now reached their destinations, and the pre-closure buffer that kept pump prices and industrial supply stable is fully gone. What comes next depends almost entirely on whether the Iran ceasefire, expiring tonight, holds — and right now, it does not look like it will.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

## The Supply Cliff Is Here: Why Today Is Different From Every Other Oil Surge

The phrase "supply cliff" has circulated in energy markets since early April, but April 21 is the date it became a physical reality rather than a forecast. Here is the mechanism.