Iran and US Both Think They're Winning — That's Exactly Why There Is No Deal

# Iran and US Both Think They're Winning — That's Exactly Why There Is No Deal

> **Quick answer:** When both parties in a conflict believe they are winning, neither has sufficient incentive to compromise. That is the structural trap the Iran-US war is locked in as the ceasefire expires April 22, 2026. Iran claims Hormuz leverage and political survival as victory; the US claims military supremacy and the Touska seizure as victory. Analysts at BCA Research and Deutsche Bank say the investors betting on a TACO-style reversal are making a category error that could trigger a 2022-style 25% S&P drawdown.

The Iran-US ceasefire expires in approximately 27 hours — Wednesday, April 22 at 8 p.m. ET — and the odds of a deal have never looked worse. Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref called US demands "childish" and pulled out of the second round of Islamabad negotiations entirely. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants on Truth Social. The Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, now sits seized in the Gulf of Oman after a US Navy destroyer blew a hole in its engine room. And yet — both sides are telling their domestic audiences they are winning.

That contradiction is not a communications problem. It is the reason there is no deal.

## The War Each Side Thinks It Is Fighting

Walk the conflict backward from each capital and you get two entirely different wars.