Warsh Fed Rate Hike Probability 2026: Trump Picked Him for Cuts — Markets Are Pricing a Hike Instead

# Warsh Fed Rate Hike Probability 2026: Trump Picked Him for Cuts — Markets Are Pricing a Hike Instead

> **Quick answer:** CME FedWatch now prices a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike to 3.75–4.00% by January 27, 2027 — up from just 18% one month ago. April CPI printed at 3.8% (the highest since May 2023) and PPI surged 1.4% against a 0.5% consensus. Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair on May 15, 2026 — the same day he inherits an inflation problem that makes the rate cuts Trump wanted mathematically improbable. The market is no longer debating when the Fed cuts. It is debating whether the Fed hikes.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

The Warsh Fed rate hike probability story is one of the sharpest reversals in Federal Reserve market pricing in years. President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell with a clear expectation: that Warsh would be more aggressive in cutting rates. What markets are now pricing is the opposite — and the data behind that repricing is hard to argue with.

## What the CME FedWatch Data Actually Shows Right Now

As of May 13, 2026, CME FedWatch assigns: