China Has the Upper Hand at the Trump-Xi Summit — What CFR's Analysis Gets Right

# China Has the Upper Hand at the Trump-Xi Summit — What CFR's Analysis Gets Right

> **Quick answer:** Five Council on Foreign Relations experts agree: China enters the May 14-15 Beijing summit holding more leverage than the US. Beijing dominates critical minerals and magnets, the Iran war is crowding out tariff talks, and Chinese officials are reportedly "working backward from US midterm elections" — calculating that Trump's need for a deal will only grow as November 2026 approaches. The tariff framework both sides agreed to in November 2025 expires on November 10, 2026 — the same week as midterms. That is not a coincidence.

The Trump-Xi Beijing summit opens May 14. By most accounts, the US goes in wanting more than China does. That asymmetry matters for your portfolio, your supply chains, and the prices you pay at the register — and the Council on Foreign Relations has published the clearest breakdown yet of exactly why China holds the cards.

This is not a preview of what will be on the agenda. Two prior analyses covered that ground. This is a cold-eyed look at who has structural leverage — and what that means for the framework that governs US-China trade through the end of 2026.

## The CFR Verdict: Five Experts, One Conclusion

The Council on Foreign Relations assembled five senior fellows — Rush Doshi, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Chris McGuire, David Sacks, and David M. Hart — to assess the summit across trade, technology, Taiwan, energy, and AI. Their collective conclusion: China enters with the upper hand on nearly every dimension.