Tariff Second Wave 2026: Fed Research Shows the Worst Price Hikes Are Still Coming

# Tariff Second Wave 2026: Fed Research Shows the Worst Price Hikes Are Still Coming

> **Quick answer:** Federal Reserve Board economists confirmed in April 2026 that Trump tariffs have achieved 100% pass-through to consumer prices — adding 0.8 percentage points to core PCE inflation and costing average households roughly $1,000. But a separate San Francisco Fed study reveals a more alarming finding: goods inflation from tariffs typically peaks in Year 2 of implementation, and services inflation peaks in Year 3. Since the bulk of tariffs took effect in late 2025, the worst price shock for American households may still be months away.

The debate over whether tariffs cost consumers is over. American households are paying more — $1,000 more in 2025, according to the Tax Foundation — and Federal Reserve economists have now confirmed the mechanism with methodological precision. But two independent lines of Federal Reserve research published in early 2026 point toward something more unsettling than the current price environment: a second wave of tariff-driven inflation that may not crest until late 2026 or 2027.

This is not a prediction about policy. It is a description of how tariff pass-through historically works, applied to a tariff regime that is unprecedented in modern American history.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

## What the Fed Researchers Actually Confirmed