Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Expires May 11: Extension or Collapse — What Happens at Midnight

# Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Expires May 11: Extension or Collapse — What Happens at Midnight

> **Quick answer:** The Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine expires today, May 11, 2026. Despite 200+ reported battlefield clashes, one metric stands out: Russia launched only 27-44 long-range drones versus a typical 140+, the lowest level of the entire war. That restraint is the most credible signal the market has. Two scenarios dominate: extension (oil falls, defense stocks sell off, European equities rally) or collapse (oil spikes toward $105, Rheinmetall surges, and risk assets drop). Here is what each scenario means for your money, asset by asset.

The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire expires tonight, and the market is holding its breath. The Trump-brokered three-day pause that began on May 9 — Russia's Victory Day — hits its hard deadline as midnight Moscow time approaches on May 11. Russia has explicitly stated this was a 3-day ceasefire, not a rolling truce. What happens in the next few hours will determine which version of reality investors wake up to on Monday morning.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.

## The Ceasefire That Wasn't — And the One Signal That Was

On the surface, this ceasefire looks like it already failed. Ukraine's General Staff reported approximately 210 battlefield clashes along the 1,200-kilometer front line since early Saturday, May 10. Three civilians were killed in Russian drone strikes in areas near the front. Russia's Defense Ministry countered by claiming Kyiv committed more than 1,000 ceasefire violations. Both sides accused each other of breaking the truce before the ink was dry.