PCE Inflation April 2026: 3.8% Annual Rate Hits Highest in 3 Years Under Warsh — But Monthly Data Shows a Crack

# PCE Inflation April 2026: 3.8% Annual Rate Hits Highest in 3 Years Under Warsh — But Monthly Data Shows a Crack

> **Quick answer:** The PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest reading since May 2023 and well above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE came in at 3.3%. The "good news": both monthly figures came in 0.1% below economists' forecasts, suggesting price momentum may be cooling at the edges. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now faces his first inflation report with markets pricing a 99% chance of no rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting — but a potential rate hike, not cut, remains on the table for later in 2026.

PCE inflation just hit its hottest annual rate in nearly three years, and the timing could not be more politically charged: the April 2026 PCE report is the first major inflation data released under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the helm after a contentious Senate confirmation and has already signaled deep discomfort with inflation running this far above target.

## What the April 2026 PCE Report Actually Shows

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the April 2026 PCE data on May 28, 2026. Here are the key numbers:

- **Headline PCE, year-over-year:** 3.8% — the highest since May 2023 - **Headline PCE, month-over-month:** +0.4% - **Core PCE, year-over-year:** 3.3% (excludes food and energy) - **Core PCE, month-over-month:** +0.2% - **Super core PCE** (services excluding shelter, the Fed's most closely watched sub-gauge): +0.1% for the month, but still running at 3.5% annually