Nvidia Earnings Tonight 5pm ET: Why the $87B Q2 Guidance Number Is All That Matters

# Nvidia Earnings Tonight 5pm ET: Why the $87B Q2 Guidance Number Is All That Matters

> **Quick answer:** Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 earnings at 5pm ET tonight, May 20, 2026. The Q1 beat — consensus is $78.3B revenue, $1.77 EPS — is almost certainly happening, with Polymarket assigning 97% probability. But that beat is already priced in. The number that will actually move NVDA stock is the Q2 guidance figure: consensus sits at $87B, the buy-side whisper is near $82B for bears and $90B for bulls. Guide above $87B and bears lose the deceleration narrative. Guide below $85B and a pullback begins regardless of how good Q1 looked.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.

Nvidia earnings tonight at 5pm ET is the most anticipated single-event in the stock market this quarter. But experienced Nvidia watchers know one thing that casual observers miss: **the Q1 result does not move the stock. The Q2 guidance number does.** With the Samsung HBM4 strike scheduled to begin tomorrow and AI capex spend evolving in real time, the guidance language Jensen Huang uses in ~8 hours will matter more than any headline EPS number.

## Why a Beat Is Already Priced In — And Why It Won't Be Enough

Wall Street consensus for Nvidia Q1 FY2027 is $78.3 billion in revenue and $1.77 in non-GAAP EPS. That is 44% year-over-year revenue growth and 115% EPS growth. Polymarket's prediction market assigns a 97% probability of a beat. Essentially every major analyst has a Buy rating.