Iran Deal Sunday May 24 2026: Trump Says 50/50 — Oil, Gas, and Your Money in Both Scenarios

# Iran Deal Sunday May 24 2026: Trump Says 50/50 — Oil, Gas, and Your Money in Both Scenarios

> **Quick answer:** President Trump told Axios on Saturday that it is a "solid 50/50" whether the US signs a framework peace deal with Iran or resumes strikes — with a decision expected Sunday, May 24. A deal would send Brent crude falling toward $80 per barrel by year-end and relieve gas prices. No deal means oil toward $120 or higher, $5+ gas, and a new wave of market volatility. Here is what the two scenarios mean for your money and what you can do right now.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

Today is arguably the single most consequential day for energy prices — and household budgets — since the Iran war began in early 2026. A framework agreement is on the table. Iran's Foreign Minister says the two sides are "very far but also very close." Trump is meeting with his negotiators and will decide by end of day whether to sign or strike. This is the dual-scenario playbook you need before markets open Monday.

## What We Know About Today's Decision

The Washington Times and Axios both reported Saturday evening that a one-page draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been agreed in principle. The framework covers four core elements: