4 Scenarios for When the Iran Ceasefire Expires Tonight — And What Each One Means for Oil Prices

# 4 Scenarios for When the Iran Ceasefire Expires Tonight — And What Each One Means for Oil Prices

> **Quick answer:** The U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires at 7:50pm ET tonight (April 22, 2026) with Brent crude at $98.48 and no deal confirmed. Four scenarios are in play: a deal framework sends Brent down 10% toward $85; a short extension holds prices flat to -5%; a quiet lapse keeps Brent in the $90-95 range; and war resumption pushes Brent toward $110-120 while defense stocks surge and airlines crater. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.

The Iran ceasefire expires tonight, and the oil market has exactly one question: which of the four scenarios plays out in the next 24 hours?

Brent crude is at $98.48. WTI is at $92.13. Both benchmarks have climbed nearly 3% today as Vice President Vance delayed his trip to Islamabad and Iran gave no confirmation it would attend a second round of talks. The clock is running. Here is what each outcome means for your money.

## The Setup: How We Got Here

The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran was brokered on April 8 in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas normally flows. The truce was never designed to be a peace deal — it was a pause to allow negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan.