Investors Are Misreading the Iran War — Deutsche Bank Says This Looks Like 2022

# Investors Are Misreading the Iran War — Deutsche Bank Says This Looks Like 2022

> **Quick answer:** Two of Wall Street's most closely followed analysts warn that equity markets are making the same category error they made at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 — pricing in an optimistic resolution that both sides have explicitly ruled out. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes the S&P 500 rallied 10%+ on early Ukraine ceasefire hopes before falling 25% peak-to-trough. BCA Research's Matt Gertken says the Iran conflict has a "higher pain threshold" than Trump's tariff moves, meaning the TACO trade playbook does not apply here.

Markets ended Monday April 21 down 0.36% on the S&P 500, with the ceasefire clock ticking toward its April 22 expiration — roughly 26 hours away. A growing chorus of Wall Street analysts says investors are dangerously underestimating what happens if no deal materializes.

> **This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.**

## Deutsche Bank's Uncomfortable 2022 Parallel

Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank's head of macro research, has issued one of the starkest warnings to reach investors this week. His concern: the current pattern of market behavior around the Iran conflict mirrors almost exactly what happened in the opening weeks of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.