Hormuz Stays Blocked Even If Ceasefire Extends: What It Means for Oil Prices in April 2026

# Hormuz Stays Blocked Even If Ceasefire Extends: What It Means for Oil Prices in April 2026

> **Quick answer:** President Trump confirmed to Bloomberg on April 20 that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will NOT lift just because the Iran ceasefire is extended. The blockade ends only when a permanent deal is signed. That means oil stays at $95+ even in the optimistic scenario. Goldman Sachs projects $120/bbl Brent if the closure holds another month. JPMorgan puts a $150 overshoot on the table. Your gas pump does not care whether you hear "ceasefire extended" on the news Wednesday — the supply shock is still running.

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran expires Wednesday evening, April 22, at approximately 8 pm ET. Markets, media, and most consumers are watching for one of two headlines: "deal reached" or "ceasefire extended." Here is the problem — Trump just told Bloomberg neither of those headlines means what you think it does for Hormuz blockade and oil prices.

## What Trump Actually Said to Bloomberg

On April 20, Trump gave Bloomberg a statement that the financial media largely buried under the broader ceasefire-will-it-extend drama. The quote is precise: "I'm not opening it until a deal is signed."

"It" is the Strait of Hormuz — the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply, or approximately 10 million barrels per day, normally flows.