FOMC Minutes Today 2pm ET: 3 Things That Will Move Markets Under Warsh

# FOMC Minutes Today 2pm ET: 3 Things That Will Move Markets Under Warsh

> **Quick answer:** The FOMC minutes from the April 29-30 meeting drop at exactly 2:00 p.m. ET today, May 20, 2026. Three specific signals will determine whether stocks rally, bonds sell off, or the dollar spikes: (1) how the four dissenters framed their objections in the room, (2) whether staff used "transitory" to describe the Iran oil shock, and (3) whether any voting members raised rate hike scenarios explicitly. This is the first major policy document of the Warsh era, even though Warsh himself wasn't in the room.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

At 2:00 p.m. ET today, the Federal Reserve releases the full deliberative record from its April 29-30 meeting — and for the first time since May 2011, the man reading those minutes as the new chair didn't write a word of them. Kevin Warsh officially took over from Jerome Powell on May 15. The minutes he inherits document the most internally divided FOMC in 34 years.

Markets have already repositioned hard since that April meeting: one rate cut is now priced in for 2026 versus three expected a month ago, the 30-year Treasury briefly touched 5.01% after the Moody's downgrade, and headline CPI printed at 3.8% with PPI surging to 6.0% annually. The minutes will tell traders whether the April committee saw any of this coming — and whether the internal hawks were already louder than the published statement suggested.

Here are the three things that will move markets within minutes of release.