Bessent Predicts 'Substantial Disinflation' After 1-2 More Hot Prints — But Warsh's Fed May Disagree

# Bessent Predicts 'Substantial Disinflation' After 1-2 More Hot Prints — But Warsh's Fed May Disagree

> **Quick answer:** Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on May 14, 2026 that after "one or two more hot inflation numbers," the U.S. will experience "substantial disinflation" — driven by falling energy prices once the Iran supply shock fades and by AI-led productivity gains. But new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6%, and a prediction market pricing a 39% chance that inflation breaches 5% this year. Whether Bessent's bet plays out — or whether Warsh's independent Fed takes a far more cautious view — is the defining economic question of the second half of 2026.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped into CNBC studios on May 14 and delivered the most consequential inflation forecast an executive branch official has made in years: brace for one or two more ugly CPI numbers, then expect a decisive turn toward disinflation. The statement lands on the exact day that Jerome Powell's tenure ends and Kevin Warsh officially takes charge of the Federal Reserve — and the gap between what Bessent is promising and what the bond market is pricing has never been wider.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personal financial decisions.*

## What Bessent Actually Said — and Why It Matters Now

On CNBC's Squawk Box, Bessent offered a three-part thesis for why inflation will cool despite April CPI hitting 3.8%, the hottest reading since early 2023: