25% of Private Colleges Will Close in 10 Years: Which Schools Are at Risk and What Students Should Do

# 25% of Private Colleges Will Close in 10 Years: Which Schools Are at Risk and What Students Should Do

> **Quick answer:** A new Huron Consulting forecast identifies 442 private colleges — 25% of all private nonprofit four-year institutions — as at risk of closing or merging within the next 10 years. More than 120 face the highest risk. Hampshire College has already confirmed it will shut down after Fall 2026. The schools most at risk are small, rural, tuition-dependent institutions with shrinking enrollment. Here's how to check if your school is on the list — and what to do now if it is.

A quiet crisis is reshaping American higher education in 2026. One in four private colleges could disappear within a decade, according to a new projection from management consulting firm Huron Consulting Group. For the 670,000 students currently enrolled at these at-risk institutions, the stakes could not be higher: fewer than half of students whose colleges close ever finish a degree.

## The Huron Consulting Forecast: 442 Schools on the Edge

The Huron Consulting Group analyzed enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, and cash reserves across approximately 1,700 private nonprofit four-year institutions. Their conclusion: **442 schools — roughly 25% — face a real risk of closing or merging within 10 years.** More than 120 of those are at the "very highest" level of risk.

"We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms. Over the coming five to ten years, this shakeout is going to take place," said Peter Stokes of Huron Consulting, capturing the blunt arithmetic of the crisis.