2026 Midterm Enthusiasm Gap: Why Democrats Are Fired Up and Republicans Are Not

# 2026 Midterm Enthusiasm Gap: Why Democrats Are Fired Up and Republicans Are Not

> **Quick answer:** Multiple polls released this week show Democrats have a historic advantage in voter enthusiasm heading into November 2026, with Democratic excitement matching 2018 blue-wave levels (61%) while Republican enthusiasm has collapsed from 65% in 2018 to 53% today. Personality psychology research suggests high-openness, low-neuroticism voters — who skew Democratic in 2026 — are statistically most likely to follow through at the ballot box. The structural conditions for a major Democratic gains scenario are all present — but six months remain.

The 2026 midterm enthusiasm gap is real, it is large, and it is showing up consistently across every major poll released this week. Democrats are engaged at near-historic levels while Republican voter motivation has dropped to its lowest point in a first-term midterm in decades — a gap that, if it holds, could reshape the balance of power in Congress.

## What the Polls Are Showing: A 12-Point Motivation Collapse

The numbers coming out of major polling firms this week paint a remarkably consistent picture.

An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Wednesday, May 7, found that 61% of Democrats describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting in November 2026. That is nearly identical to Democrats' enthusiasm in October 2018 — when they gained 41 House seats in one of the most decisive midterm sweeps in modern history. Meanwhile, Republican enthusiasm has dropped from 65% in October 2018 to 53% today.